October ended with the most disappointing macro-economic data since April 2017...
Source: Bloomberg
But stocks were holding up well until China blew it...
China chundered in the trade-deal punchbowl overnight, claiming that a deal was unlikely and despite Kudlow and Trump's best efforts, the odds of a trade deal tumbled (but remain up on the month).
..
Source: Bloomberg
And that crushed the gains in stocks that Powell had created...
Source: Bloomberg
Chinese stocks managed to hold on to gains from post-Golden-Week buying but faded the last few days as reality of the non-deal trade-deal hit investors...
Source: Bloomberg
European Stocks ended October higher with UK's FTSE lagging and Germany's DAX leading...
Source: Bloomberg
All major US Stock indices were higher in October, led by Nasdaq (Dow was a laggard) but the last few days has seen selling...
Source: Bloomberg
NOTE that US, Europe, and China all saw stocks rise once China returned from Golden Week
A daft end to the day...
US equity gains came on the back of an almost non-stop short-squeeze...
Source: Bloomberg
Momo ended October just in the red, after a big slide intramonth...
Source: Bloomberg
Defensives and Cyclicals were practically unchanged on the month, thanks to a surge in cyclical risk-taking mid-month...
Source: Bloomberg
Financials outperformed on the month but started to fall back in line with the yield curve in the last few days...
Source: Bloomberg
Smart Money has started to decouple from stocks...
Source: Bloomberg
Equity and credit protection costs collapsed in October...
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were mixed on the month with the short-end lower and 10Y/30Y higher by the end (despite a collapse in yields the last few days)...
Source: Bloomberg
This divergence meant that the yield curve (2s10s) soared in October - its biggest steepening since Dec 2016 (right after Trump elected)...
Source: Bloomberg
The Dollar Index dived in October (after 3 straight months higher), the worst month since Jan 2018, and back in the red for 2019 (back below 200DMA)...
Source: Bloomberg
While the rest of the world appears to be weakening vs the dollar, the dollar itself is losing notable ground against 'money'...
Source: Bloomberg
Cable soared over 5% in October, the biggest gain since May 2009 (back above 200DMA)...
Source: Bloomberg
Offshore Yuan surged in October, its best gain since January 2019...
Source: Bloomberg
Despite an ugly puke late in the month, Cryptos ended October higher (after 3 down months), led by Bitcoin Cash...
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin bounced perfectly off its 200DMA during the month, roaring back above a key trendline...
Source: Bloomberg
Silver soared in October and while the dollar dived, crude ended lower...
Source: Bloomberg
This is silver's 4th month higher in the last 5, ending back above $18...
Gold managed to end October higher (up 5 of the last 6 months) and back above $1500...
Silver's outperformance of gold erased September's relative gains...
Source: Bloomberg
WTI ended back below $55 after three big legs down this week...
Finally, we note that the Fed's liquidity spigot is wide open and shows no signs of being "fixed"...
Source: Bloomberg
Additionally, after today's vote to formalize the public phase of the House's impeachment inquiry, odds of Trump being impeached by the House have risen to 79% BUT the odds of him completing his first term (i.e. a bet that the Senate will reject the impeachment) is at 70%...
Source: Bloomberg
And for those claim that global economic data is bottoming... it's not!! (October was the worst month since May 2018)...
Source: Bloomberg
And what happens next, now that The Fed has shown their cards...
Could happen, especially given the stock market's decoupling from Fed expectations...
Source: Bloomberg
