While all eyes focused on the ISM/PMI 'soft' survey data to support the fantasy of a strong economy (as 'hard' data crashes to two-year lows), The New York Fed just poured some cold water on the hype. Empire State Manufacturing survey tumbled in July with 'hope' plunging to its lowest since Nov 2016.
While the headline priont dropped (from 19.8 to 9.
8, missing expectations of 15.0), it was the expectations index that really plunged (from 41.7 to 34.9 - lowest since Nov 2016)...
Almost across the baord weakness was seen in the underlying components - new orders, employment, inventories, shipments, and average workweek all plunged in July. Only pricesd paid rose modestly, perhaps signaling more stagflationary pressures looming.
As a reminder, soft data had been picking up recently (even as hard data crashed)...
Fool me once...
