The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell to just 202k last week (week-ending Dec 30th) from +220k the prior week. That is basically 2023 lows...
Source: Bloomberg
We wait for next week when the biggest non-seasonally-adjusted jump in claims is expected.
California and Texas saw the largest drop in initial claims while Pennsylvania and New Jersey saw the biggest increase...
Additionally, continuing jobless claims declined from 1.886mm to 1.855mm in the week-ending Dec 23rd...
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman believes that persistent seasonal distortions more than explain the increase in continuing claims since early September, and expect those distortions to boost the level of continuing claims by an additional 100k by March.
However, if the massive loosening of financial conditions is any signal, continuing claims are about to plunge (4 week lagged continuing claims track US FCI)...
Does this look like an economy that needs six rate-cuts this year? Or is it political after all?
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