Бизнес и финансы

Geopolitical Chaos Slams Stocks As Traders Flood Into Safe-Havens

With 'everyone' on vacation, geopolitical chaos drove risk-off today

China trade war
Hong Kong revolt
PLA buildup
German recession
Italeave
Epstein farce
Argentina's ARS pounded
Kashmir chaos
Russian nuke explosion
Iran tanker safari

Sending gold above stocks for the year.

Новости СМИ2

Source: Bloomberg

And since Powell's "mid-cycle adjustment", gold and bonds are the big winner...

And on the day, investors dumped the broad market while piling into Bonds, Bullion, and BYND as safe-havens...

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese stocks were miraculously bid today (after some brief selling in the early afternoon session, stocks soared as HK tensions escalated)...

Source: Bloomberg

A positive open in Europe did not end well...

Source: Bloomberg

New record low close for Bund yields...

Source: Bloomberg

Crushing European Banks to a critical support level...

Source: Bloomberg

And US equities were all lower on the day (led by Trannies)...

CNBC Anchor: "Equity markets have picked up a bit, now down just 430 points"

Bagholder On CNBC: "...we don't want to sell, we are long term investors."

Seems like the Fib 61.8% retrace was the hard limit for the short-squeeze dead-cat-bounce...

All the major US equities broke back below key technical levels...

Eerily echoing 1998's performance...

Source: Bloomberg

VIX topped 21 intraday, and judging by 2s10s, has a long way to go...

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks and bonds remain decoupled

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields reverted back to collapsing today (led by the long-end)...

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields dropped to lowest since Sept 2016...

Source: Bloomberg

And 30Y is within a tick of record lows (2.09% on 7/8/16)...

Source: Bloomberg

The yield (2s10s) plunged to fresh cycle lows...

Source: Bloomberg

And 3m10Y is not at its most inverted since April 2007...

Source: Bloomberg

And in case you wondered how bad it could get, 5-year-forward 10Y yields plunged to a new record low...

Source: Bloomberg

Argentina was a bloodbath after Macri's dismal showing in the primaries...

The peso crashed 25%...

Source: Bloomberg

And bond prices collapsed...

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan slid modestly weaker (after 8th straight day of weaker fixes)

Source: Bloomberg

Hong Kong Dollar drifted back towards the low-end of the USDollar peg band...

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos are mixed since Friday after the overnight crash on Saturday morning (Bitcoin hovering around $11500)...

Source: Bloomberg

Copper was worst as crude managed to scramble back to breakeven but PMs were best...

Source: Bloomberg

As stock losses accelerated, gold (and silver) spiked higher...

With bund yields hitting new lows, gold will be pressured higher as having more yield than over $15 trillion of global bonds...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI bounced up to test $55...

Elsewhere in commodity-land, Iron Ore continues to crash...

DCE Iron Ore Spot index declines 9 days in a row.
Iron Ore futures -5.1%, low 609.5 RMB, 607 limit down

Source: Bloomberg

And Chicago Corn crashed most since 2013 as official corn-planting estimates exceeded analyst expectations.

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as Gluskin-Sheff's David Rosenberg noted: "For all the excitement and jubilation as one high followed another, courtesy of stock buybacks for the most part, the reality is that the S&P 500 isn’t even 1% above where it was on January 26th, 2018. More than a year-and-a-half of nothing … except the dividend, that is."